Howdy! In today’s newsletter, I want to talk about something we all love to build, and almost always get wrong: forecasts.
Revenue projections, growth models, burn-rate scenarios, you name it…we all obsess over the numbers because we turn spreadsheets into strategy.
But here’s the problem: A forecast is not a plan. In reality, it’s just a guess. Sometimes an educated one, but a guess nonetheless.
I’ve built forecasts that looked amazing on paper.
They told a great story. They were detailed, optimistic, and backed by data.
But, when I zoomed out and looked at what really drove outcomes in my business, it wasn’t the forecast. It was the discipline behind the daily execution.
Because, truthfully:
You can’t predict what your team will actually follow through on.
You can’t model market timing or customer adoption with perfect accuracy.
You definitely can’t spreadsheet your way around a broken sales process or an undisciplined spend.
What I’ve learned the hard way:
Forecasts are helpful only if they’re grounded in operational reality
Overconfidence in your own numbers can blind you to what’s not working
Discipline in the day-to-day matters more than any projected growth curve
And most importantly: Hope is not a strategy. A forecast built on hope will sink you faster than no forecast at all.
Important question to ask yourself this week:
What part of your business are you forecasting… instead of actually fixing?