Don’t Let a Forecast Fool You

Howdy! In today’s newsletter, I want to talk about something we all love to build, and almost always get wrong: forecasts.

Revenue projections, growth models, burn-rate scenarios, you name it…we all obsess over the numbers because we turn spreadsheets into strategy.

But here’s the problem: A forecast is not a plan. In reality, it’s just a guess. Sometimes an educated one, but a guess nonetheless.

I’ve built forecasts that looked amazing on paper.

They told a great story. They were detailed, optimistic, and backed by data.

But, when I zoomed out and looked at what really drove outcomes in my business, it wasn’t the forecast. It was the discipline behind the daily execution.

Because, truthfully:

You can’t predict what your team will actually follow through on.

You can’t model market timing or customer adoption with perfect accuracy.

You definitely can’t spreadsheet your way around a broken sales process or an undisciplined spend.

What I’ve learned the hard way:

Forecasts are helpful only if they’re grounded in operational reality

Overconfidence in your own numbers can blind you to what’s not working

Discipline in the day-to-day matters more than any projected growth curve

And most importantly: Hope is not a strategy. A forecast built on hope will sink you faster than no forecast at all.

Important question to ask yourself this week:

What part of your business are you forecasting… instead of actually fixing?